The largest prediction-market platform. Polymarket operates an offshore platform not subject to American regulation. Its American platform is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. In May 2025 traders wagered over $1bn on the platform, up from $63m a year earlier.
In February 2026 Israel arrested two men, one of whom had recently been an army reservist, for placing bets on the platform using classified information about the precise timing of Israel's attacks on Iran. They were charged with bribery, obstruction of justice and "serious security offences". The user "ricosuave666" had won more than $150,000 by betting with suspicious accuracy on the timing of the strikes.
Other suspicious wagers include profitable bets placed on the toppling of Nicolás Maduro shortly before Donald Trump ordered the capture of the Venezuelan dictator, and a surge in the odds on María Corina Machado winning the Nobel peace prize hours before she learned she had won.
Polymarket has occasionally withdrawn contracts where traders could affect outcomes or where disclosure would be harmful—for instance, it pulled a market on whether the Artemis II spacecraft would explode.
See also: Kalshi.
zeal, n.: Quality seen in new graduates -- if you're quick.