Estonia is a Baltic republic and NATO member that borders Russia. It was annexed by Stalin in 1940 and occupied by the Soviet Union from 1944 until 1991. The bridge between Narva's Hermann Castle and Russia's Ivangorod Fortress spans what Estonia's border-force chief calls the edge of the free world.
Russia has been jamming GPS signals in the region, disrupting air traffic and search-and-rescue operations. Russian border guards removed buoys on the Narva river, which mark the border. Surveillance blimps are a regular sight. Although Russia's bases near the Estonian and Finnish borders are nearly empty, with troops and equipment sent to Ukraine, new construction is under way.
Estonia has barely grown since the war in Ukraine began, and consumer sentiment is subdued.
Estonian intelligence offers a three-to-five year timeline for Russia to build new military formations capable of threatening the Baltics, depending on the course of the war, Russia's economy and whether sanctions remain. Defence minister Hanno Pevkur has argued that Russia could shift 50,000 troops from Ukraine to its Leningrad military district with minimal impact on the war, significantly changing the force posture near Estonia.
On September 19th 2025, three Russian MiG-31 jets spent 12 minutes in Estonian airspace—the most egregious breach in over 20 years. NATO tracked the jets throughout; they were armed only with air-to-air missiles and posed no threat to the ground. Swedish jets were among those that responded. Mr Pevkur insists the incursions are intentional: "In Russia nothing happens by accident." He has urged the West to focus not on grey-zone provocations themselves but on supporting Ukraine, tightening sanctions and enforcing the oil-price cap.
Estonia's Defence League, a volunteer organisation, now has more than 30,000 members, an increase of 5,000 since 2022. Nele Loorents, a researcher at the International Centre for Defence and Security in Tallinn, notes that the league's engagement of younger generations builds resilience: "They are actually the ones in the regions who explain how to survive in crisis situations." A challenge is "overlapping responsibilities": many members also volunteer for other forces, like the police or rescue services.
Estonia's navy, commanded by Commodore Ivo Värk, is on the front line of the effort to confront Russia's shadow fleet, tracking dozens of shadow vessels passing through the Gulf of Finland daily. The navy pioneered what analysts call "legal harassment": hailing suspicious vessels by radio and demanding to check their insurance and paperwork against international safety standards. Estonia has also passed a law authorising the navy to attack civilian vessels if they are damaging its critical infrastructure. Yet when it comes to halting tankers that do not pose a direct threat, the navy's patrol and mine-warfare boats are outmatched—"like smaller dogs trying to get to the big dog", as one sailor put it. In early 2025 the navy tried to detain the Jaguar, a sanctioned tanker sailing without a flag, but Russia launched fighter jets into Estonian airspace to protect the ship, forcing the Estonians to break off pursuit.
If you didn't have most of your friends, you wouldn't have most of your problems.