Virginia is the only American state where an incumbent governor cannot seek re-election. Open races are held in the year after a presidential election, meaning the national mood matters more than in most states. In the past ten contests, the party in the White House has won the Virginia governorship just once. The last time a Republican won the governorship with a Republican in the White House was in 1973. Abigail Spanberger won the 2025 race by 15 points.
Virginia has a higher share of federal workers than almost any other state. Northern Virginia is home to well-educated commuters working for the government, while Hampton Roads, on the state's southern coast, is a military hub with many working-class defence contractors.
Virginia has been steadily moving to the left. Voters have become more Democratic than the rest of America's with each presidential vote since 2012. In 2016 and 2024 Virginia was the only southern state to reject Donald Trump, although he did better in November 2024 than in 2020. Ben Tribbett, a Democratic strategist in Reston, describes the state as "America's capital of white suburban women"—one of the only groups of voters that Kamala Harris gained with.
Live within your income, even if you have to borrow to do so.