The Black Sea is a critical waterway for Ukraine's grain and agricultural exports, which in 2024 totalled $24.5bn (59% of total exports). Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the sea has become a military "grey zone"—apart from patrol boats, neither navy risks sailing. Russia's fleet has been pushed back, though commercial freight continues with transponders switched off.
From July 2022 a grain-export agreement allowed Ukraine to resume shipments from Odessa, Chornomorsk and Pivdenny. Russia terminated the deal in 2023. Ukraine then opened a new corridor after driving Russia's fleet out of the western Black Sea with home-made and Western missiles.
Turkey controls access to the Black Sea through the Bosporus, governed by the Montreux Convention, which prohibits warships of non-littoral states from entering in wartime. This has prevented minesweepers donated by Britain, the Netherlands and Belgium from reaching Ukrainian waters. Turkey wants to avoid a naval build-up by either Russia or NATO at the end of the war. In April 2025 Turkey hosted talks with Ukraine, France and Britain about deploying a maritime peacekeeping force.
I couldn't possibly fail to disagree with you less.