Two years ago I coded up a small python model to simulate the world cup. The results back then were more or line with what the general predictions were; Brazil to win.
I updated the model for the Euro 2016 tournament. My data source for matches had gone, so I had to adjust that and I also introduced weights for previous games. Games that are friendly, or longer ago weigh less. The oldest matches I am taking into account are from just after the World Cup.
The results seem more different from the pundits than last time around. France is the favorite (25%), but that is because the home advantage which I set at 0.25 - historically the model has it between 0.2 and 0.3. Poland is the surprising number two with 21%. They did a decent job qualifying, had some good friendlies, so I find it hard to argue with.
Spain and England are basically tied at 11%. Of course Englands performance could very well decide whether Brexit happens or not, so this is important.
The model does not like Germany's chances much at 8%. The results from two years ago are now weighed only at 30% because of the time gone by.
Just to put my money where my model is, I made an actual bet for Poland to win
Most of the great triumphs and tragedies of history are caused not by people being fundamentally good or fundamentally evil, but by people being fundamentally people.