Burundi is an east African country of 14m people squeezed into an area not much bigger than Wales or Massachusetts. The only countries that beat it on both population and density are Bangladesh, Taiwan and, by a little, its northerly neighbour Rwanda. Bujumbura, its largest city, lies on the shore of Lake Tanganyika.
Most Burundians live in the collines, rolling hills where they grow bananas, cassava and beans on steep slopes. By conventional measures Burundi is one of the most rural countries on the planet. But Africapolis, a research project led by the OECD, considers a place urban if it has more than 10,000 inhabitants in buildings not more than 200 metres apart. By that measure 78% of Burundians are already urban; by 2050 most of the country will be one solid agglomeration. By 2050 there will be 10m more mouths to feed.
Some 78% of farmers own less than a quarter of a hectare of land, about the size of four tennis courts. Fields are no longer left fallow and yields are flat. Fertiliser is subsidised and its use growing, but distribution is run by a monopolist which often delivers late.
The UN's World Food Programme says the share of households that are "food insecure" rose from 28% in 2008 to 41% in 2023. Half of young children are stunted.
The traditional sources of prestige in Burundian culture are land, cows and children. Land disputes clog the courts. Daily life is becoming more monetised: to borrow a male animal for breeding now attracts a fee. Many young Burundians migrate to work on farms in Tanzania, in cities across east Africa, or as domestic servants in the Gulf.
The fertility rate is about five births per woman. The government wants to reduce it to three by 2040. Rwanda, which is culturally very similar, is already down to 3.7 and Kenya to 3.2.
Burundi once had a king. It was believed the king would die if he set eyes on Lake Tanganyika. More recently the country has suffered ethnic massacres, civil war and, in 2015, unrest that triggered a failed coup.
Guilt was the grease in which the wheels of the authority turned.