East African country and a front line in the American war on terror. al-Shabab, an al-Qaeda affiliate thought to have 10,000-15,000 fighters, is based there. Its territory has become a staging ground for jihadist attacks abroad, including planned attacks on America. The country's president is Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, three years into a four-year term as of mid-2025.
Since Donald Trump returned to office in January 2025, there have been at least 19 American bombing raids in Somalia over three months—more than the 11 the Biden administration conducted in the whole of 2024. The Trump administration has devolved authority to conduct strikes outside "active" war zones from the president to the combatant commands. America has slashed its aid to Somalia from $1.2bn in 2023 to less than $400m in 2025, with no budget at all for food, fuel and salaries for Somali special forces.
The federal government in Mogadishu looks increasingly weak. Early gains against al-Shabab in central Somalia have been reversed. In 2025 al-Shabab shelled Mogadishu's international airport and bombed the president's convoy; Mohamud survived, but several others were killed. A growing number of observers fear Mogadishu could fall to al-Shabab. Al-Shabab is said to have been receiving arms and training from the Houthis. A spate of assassinations of senior commanders is believed to be the result of al-Shabab infiltrating the national army's rank and file.
In 2023 creditors granted $4.5bn in debt relief, paving the way for Somalia's re-entry into the global financial system. The UN arms embargo imposed when the state collapsed in the 1990s has been lifted.
In March 2024 the federal government passed a law to amend the constitution, concentrating power in the executive and introducing universal suffrage for national elections scheduled for 2026, replacing the existing system of indirect voting. Critics denounced it as an attempt to dismantle the fragile system of federalism that gives statelets largely untrammelled control of their territories, including over taxation and security.
The dispute has poisoned relations between the central government and the federal states.
Puntland, a statelet in northern Somalia led by President Said Deni, has severed formal ties with Mogadishu for more than 15 months as of mid-2025. Deni admires the model of federalism practised by the United Arab Emirates, where power is split between seven emirates. Puntland officials talk of strengthening ties with secessionist Somaliland.
Since late 2024 Puntland forces, backed by American and Emirati air strikes, have waged an all-out war against Islamic State (IS) in the remote mountains east of Garowe. The local IS leader is widely believed to be the group's global caliph. Mohammed Mubarak, head of Puntland's security co-ordination office, claims his forces have killed about 800 of an estimated 950 to 1,100 IS fighters, with the remainder holed up in a single cave complex. A similar offensive against al-Shabab may begin soon.
Relations between Mogadishu and Jubaland, a statelet in the south, are even worse. In November 2024 the federal government disputed the re-election of Sheikh Ahmed Madobe, Jubaland's strongman. The two sides have issued reciprocal arrest warrants for their respective leaders. The federal government has blocked flights to Jubaland's airport and the statelet claims Mogadishu has withheld funds it was due to receive.
An AU peacekeeping force, first deployed to protect Mogadishu and battle al-Shabab in 2007, was due to be replaced by a slimmed-down successor in January 2025. Eight months later there is still no agreement on who should pay for it. The European Union may stump up €60m, but that leaves a big gap. Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have declined the AU's request for emergency contributions.
Some in Washington are questioning the viability of Somalia's decades-long state-building project. "Thirty years of it not working: could a case be made for trying something else?" asks J. Peter Pham, who served as a special envoy to Africa in Trump's first administration. There is little sign yet that America plans to pull out altogether. But after decades of funnelling aid through Mogadishu, some reckon Somaliland—and perhaps Puntland—make for more reliable partners. Somaliland wants America to build a military base on its Red Sea coast, ideally in exchange for recognition as an independent country. General Michael Langley, America's top general in Africa, visited in mid-2025.
Foreign intervention by Turkey and Qatar would probably prevent a jihadist takeover of Mogadishu. But further fragmentation could lead to resurging clan violence. "Proxification"—a term coined by Afyare Abdi Elmi, a Somali academic, to describe the proliferation of armed groups backed by competing foreign powers—would make it even harder for Somali leaders to form a lasting political settlement.
Somaliland, which declared independence from Somalia in 1991, was recognised as a sovereign state by Israel in December 2025—the first country to do so. Somalia called the move "illegal". al-Shabab denounced Israel as "the biggest enemy of Islamic society" and hostility to Israel among Somalis may boost the group's recruitment.
The UN Security Council banned charcoal exports from Somalia because jihadists were making millions selling it to the Gulf, where shisha smokers prize the aroma of acacia wood.
We really don't have any enemies. It's just that some of our best friends are trying to kill us.