Football Predictions

Monte Carlo tournament simulator. Reads pre-tournament ELO ratings scraped from eloratings.net and runs 10,000 simulations of the groups and bracket, with controls for home advantage, recent form, ELO strength, and late-round effects. Edit ratings, fix match scores, tune the model, and backtest it against past World Cups and Euros to see how the probabilities shift.

DOsinga/football_predictions blog post

Configure model
Regulation-time outcome by ELO difference
Higher-rated team wins Draw Higher-rated team loses

The chart shows a neutral group-stage match. Host advantage and later-round leveling shift the effective rating difference.

Backtest model

Compare this model with the defaults across every completed World Cup and Euro.

Not run

For children with short attention spans: boomerangs that don't come back.